By Reginald Renagi *

Papua New Guinea is a failing state.  There, I’ve said it to get your attention.  I hope I did.

Because the leaders we trusted since Independence have all failed us like the state institutions they are now running into the ground.

So unless those who have the power and opportunity to do something for PNG themselves actually now find some motivation, it may soon be too late to get the ‘ship of state’ back on track.

Another thing is that unless we as a nation have some general agreement or consensus about what our problem is, there can be agreement or consensus about possible solutions.

Having looked at the big picture and tried to get a handle on the pertinent issues in PNG, I found it somewhat difficult.

But less so when I broke it up into some manageable bits.

This is what I found PNG has become and what we as a nation must do to save our country.

When you look at the big picture, everyone is at a different level of perceptiveness.  Let me make this a little clearer here.

If you stand on top of the mountain, your view is different to someone who stands at the base of it, or if half way up the mountainside.

Where do people stand?

So let’s try to find some common ground. At the top of the mountain is Prime Minister Michael Somare, who is on record as saying he thinks no one in PNG is starving. 

The PM is also on record as saying PNG is a rich country yet there are eye witness reports of many poor and uneducated people comprising the bulk of our population.

But the PM doesn’t live in squatter settlements located at the edge of cities and towns.

If there is a disconnection between the perception of this country’s leader (s) and reality, surely these statements reflect a credibility gap of unbridgeable proportions?

Either the captain of our state ship cannot or will not see the problem. That is because he is part of the problem.

So what about the PNG government?

The public thinks it is dysfunctional for many years as nothing it does seem to work, or if it does; it is highly inefficient in getting the job done to serving our people and the nation’s interest.

The reality is that living on large incomes that depend on the personal whim of the political elites or the man at the top of the mountain, their perception is not going to change.

After all, many consider they are just marking time and looking over the PM’s shoulder anyway.

Any foreign backers can merely ‘upstakes’ and leave if the local situation becomes too hot.  Recent media reports of Japanese investors in one of our biggest projects could be attributed to this perception.

The emerging so called PNG elites and business leaders are now at various stages up the mountainside, and have hopes one day of eventually reaching the top.

A small stumble could see them sliding back down the muddy slopes to the bottom of the mountain, so they have to be very careful about where they tread.

Competition is fierce for the few crumbs falling from the leader’s plates. Many aspire to join those as they can see both those at the top, and sometimes look down at those below them.

Given the current PNG system of selecting political leadership and wealth distribution isn’t going to change, why would these elites want to upset the current situation?

These people do not want the status quo to change as they are all so snug in their ‘comfort zones’. 

What’s in it for them?

Those that have the opportunity to ‘spiv the system’ often emigrate to a better life overseas (or so they believe?).

Finally there is the large mass of uneducated, disenfranchised people who make up the bulk of the population. Since Independence, they have been lied to, tricked, robbed of their birthright and largely ignored by their own people’s representatives and beauracrats, except at election times.

The people have very little opportunity to see beyond tomorrow.  Worse still, they almost do not have any legal rights or opportunities to obtain a fair share of the country’s mountain of wealth (as it is already happening now).

History shows us some good examples: as exactly the same human scenario as pre French revolution in late 18th Century, pre Russian revolution in early 20th Century and China in the latter half of the 20th Century.

Just take a good look at Iran and more recently Yugoslavia. All it takes is a small spark to turn into a roaring bushfire.

So once a revolution starts, it is impossible to stop before many end up even more disadvantaged.

Who wins, who loses?

In a revolution, who loses and who wins?

Historically, often those political leaders who have turned their backs on their own people literally lose their heads.

While many others have peddled away the people’s money and estates overseas and escape (if they succeed) by flying out to lead a useless life of luxury, and decadence leaving their poor suffering people at home to inherit a mess of their own doing.

Mostly, those middle class elite end up being disposed as their fragile world is turned upside down.

And it takes a lot of resources to either leave the country or stay reasonably safe at home.

Invariably, all those at the bottom of the mountain see out of a revolution is more misery and death. But then that’s nothing new to them is it?

Therefore even the promise of a better life is worth the risk of supporting those who offer it.

Look at the current situation in many African countries where boy soldiers are trained to kill their own people at the behest of dictators and military juntas. Ethnic cleansing is not a new concept and has been around for thousands of years.  

Drivers for change

There are two main drivers that will force change on this country, whether we like it or not. The first is our population growth and secondly, food production.

PNG’s population is ballooning and has doubled in over 30 years. From current growth, it will double again in less the same time.

This is at a critical time when traditional land and sea resource ownership is under intensive threat from foreign ownership as what is happening now (unless we stop it by force).

Broad scale mono-culture of food products requires the alienation of land owned by small scale subsistence farmers.

But where do our people then grow their own food?

The media recently reported 6,000 acres of cocoa production might help the current world chocolate famine in developed countries (due to political unrest in the Ivory Coast).

But this action won’t put traditional food on the table of those who originally owned the land.

Destroying river and sea resources through pollution from mining operations will further reduce the available food production resources.

For PNG, removal of forest resources will only lead to the destruction of existing gardens through erosion and landslides.

A time to change direction

So, unless someone with vision and guts does something soon today about PNG’s unequal wealth distribution, a revolution could well be the fate of her citizens.

As explained above, those people who are reasonably well off and with the opportunity to change usually don’t want to.

But those with no opportunity believe they have nothing to lose.

The only group who could effect a change in direction are those who have the opportunity to do something positive, before it’s too late.

That’s the group who are half way up the big mountain.

And can see the mistakes being made by those who nearing or are already at the mountain top. This group have the most to gain and the most to lose.

So my countrymen and women, just where do you all stand?

Make the real change now or better be ready to face the consequences in future.

Isn’t it time you got yourself motivated?